Shrinking calves tracked with more falls in older adults

A tape measure around the calf takes seconds. Researchers in China asked whether that measurement, taken twice a few years apart, could pick out who is more likely to fall.

They followed 7,068 community-dwelling adults aged 60 or older from 2018 to 2021, a median of 3.07 years. Their average age was 79.7. By the end, 23.6% reported a fall in the past year.

Those whose calves shrank by 5 cm or more had 33% higher odds of falling than those with no shrinkage. The pattern held after researchers set aside people who had already fallen at the start.

A tape can't tell muscle from fat or fluid. Only the right leg was measured, and falls were self-reported. Because shrinkage and falls happened over the same stretch, a fall, or the illness behind it, could have caused the shrinking. The follow-up overlapped the pandemic, and everyone lived in China. This study cannot show that rebuilding calves prevents falls.